Ethereum (ETH) has pulled ahead of Bitcoin (BTC) on a relative basis this month—and JPMorgan thinks it’s not a fluke. In a fresh note, the bank highlights four catalysts propelling ether’s recent strength: ETF plumbing and flows, corporate treasury accumulation, a friendlier regulatory backdrop, and a bullish technical turn in the ETH/BTC ratio. Independent market data back up the thesis: spot Ether ETFs just logged their first-ever $1 billion day of net inflows, and the ETH/BTC pair pushed to a 2025 high.
The four drivers, explained
1) ETF mechanics + big-money inflows
U.S. regulators have cleared in-kind creations/redemptions for spot crypto ETFs—a structure that cuts friction for large investors moving assets in and out. That improvement has been a tailwind for ether funds as they’ve scaled up in 2025. Then came the headline: on Aug. 11, spot Ether ETFs took in over $1B net in a single day—a first for the category—led by BlackRock and Fidelity products. Together, those details help explain why ETH demand has accelerated in August.
2) Corporate treasuries are buying ETH
A surge of small and mid-cap public companies has begun adding ether to balance sheets—sometimes alongside staking—creating a new, steady bid for supply. Reuters tallied roughly 966,000 ETH held by companies as of early August (≈$3.5B at the time), and Standard Chartered has argued treasuries could eventually control a meaningful slice of the float. The upshot: a new class of “sticky” holders is forming.
3) A clearer policy backdrop
Policy moves in Washington have improved sentiment around Ethereum’s role in payments and tokenization. For example, progress on a U.S. stablecoin bill has been associated with stronger ether performance (stablecoins are heavily issued and transacted on Ethereum). Meanwhile, the SEC’s tolerance for in-kind ETF flows removed operational uncertainty for large issuers. Together, these signals reduce headline risk versus prior years.
4) The chart turned: ETH/BTC broke higher
Since June 1, ETH has outpaced BTC, driving the ETH/BTC ratio above ~0.037, its high for 2025 so far. Technicians view that breakout as confirmation of relative-strength momentum—exactly the kind of “fourth leg” that can pull macro money off the sidelines.
By the numbers: what the market is showing
- ETF flows: Ether’s funds hit a record $1B daily net inflow on Aug. 11; cumulative inflows have surpassed $10Bsince launch, though flows remain volatile day-to-day.
- Price action: ETH reclaimed and held the $4,000 handle last week before broad-market chop; relative performance versus BTC has been the standout.
- Treasury adoption: Corporate buyers have emerged as a new class of holders—Reuters and bank research both document the trend.
The fine print: risks and counter-currents
Even as the structural story improves, the tape remains choppy:
- Flow reversals happen. After the record day, ether funds have also seen notable outflow days—including nearly $200M in redemptions on Aug. 18—reminding traders that ETF demand can swing with macro data and positioning.
- Macro sensitivity. Crypto continues to trade with rates and risk appetite; late-summer jitters around inflation and Jackson Hole have pressured both BTC and ETH.
Why it matters beyond August
JPMorgan’s framework implies ether’s leadership can last if those four pillars hold:
- ETF market plumbing stays favorable (in-kind, tight spreads, multiple issuers).
- Treasury adoption continues (firms raising capital precisely to buy and stake ETH).
- Policy clarity advances (stablecoin rules and disclosure standards that benefit Ethereum’s settlement role).
- Technical trend in ETH/BTC maintains higher-lows above key breakout levels.
If any leg wobbles—say, flows flip negative for weeks or the ETH/BTC ratio loses the breakout—relative strength could fade. But for now, the drivers are visible in public data, not just in a bank’s slide deck.
What to watch next
- ETF dashboards: Keep an eye on daily net flows and secondary-market volumes for the largest ether funds (BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale mini). A string of strong inflow days often begets more.
- Corporate filings & raises: More treasury programs (or capital raises earmarked for ETH) would reinforce the structural bid case.
- ETH/BTC levels: Technicians are watching whether the pair can hold above the 0.036–0.037 zone and extend.
- Macro calendar: CPI/Jobs/central-bank signals; the same days that swing equities often swing ETF crypto flows